Representatives from fifty-two African countries, along with organizations and financial institutions, convened in Cairo last week for the Aswan Forum for Sustainable Peace and Development. The forum highlighted security risks associated with environmental issues and natural resource management, coinciding with Ethiopia’s preparations for the fifth filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
The GERD has been a major concern for Egypt since its first filling in 2020, as the Nile supplies 90% of Egypt’s fresh water, crucial for irrigation and power generation. Ethiopia, however, views the dam as vital for its power needs and economic growth, potentially doubling its electricity output. Despite a 2015 agreement requiring coordination among Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan for dam fillings, recent negotiations have stalled, with no binding agreement reached.
Ethiopia’s completion of what was termed the “fourth and final filling” in 2023 did not prevent the issue from resurfacing. The Aswan Forum provided Egypt with an opportunity to address its concerns, particularly highlighting the potential risks of unilateral actions on transboundary water resources, according to Hesham El-Askary, a professor at Chapman University.
El-Askary noted the environmental and domestic impacts on Egypt, including reduced Nile flow affecting water availability, agriculture, industry, and hydropower generation. The ongoing water scarcity could lead to public unrest, especially amidst Egypt’s current economic crisis and inflation.
Ethiopia maintains that it does not intend to harm its neighbors’ water access. A joint statement by Egypt’s President Sisi and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in July emphasized Ethiopia’s commitment to avoid significant harm during the dam’s filling.
Nevertheless, Egypt considers the issue critical to its national security. Military actions have been contemplated, but forums like Aswan are seen as opportunities to maintain dialogue. According to El-Askary, such forums position Egypt as a leader in addressing regional challenges and fostering cooperation on shared water resources.
Ismaeel Thrawat, a visiting assistant professor at The American University in Cairo, emphasized the importance of trust and cooperation for economic stability and peace in the region. He highlighted the potential for African countries to benefit from realigned global supply chains post-COVID-19.
Both Egypt and Ethiopia recently joined the BRICS bloc of emerging market nations, indicating a mutual interest in peaceful economic and diplomatic cooperation beyond the GERD dispute. Thrawat suggested that aligned incentives for business could naturally lead to greater incentives for peace. Uniting for Peace and Progress: The Aswan Forum addresses critical challenges of environmental security, water resource management, and regional cooperation in Africa
